June 29, 2005
In a deceitful boost to Bush on the
morning of his Iraq address, the Washington Post and ABC News
released a poll of U.S. public opinion on Iraq. But the Post's
numbers in their print version (in
the body of the article) underestimates the "Out Now"
position by more than 3 times. One has to look at their actual
numbers (Poll Data) to see that support for "staying the
course" is much smaller than the article suggests.
The Washington Post has published
the results of their joint survey with ABC News on the front
page today under the heading "Survey Finds Most Support
Staying in Iraq - Public Skeptical About Gains Against Insurgents"
by Richard Morin and Dan Balz.
The first two paragraphs read:
"a new Washington Post-ABC
News poll finds that most Americans do not believe the administration's
claims that impressive gains are being made against the insurgency,
but a clear majority is willing to keep U.S. forces there for
an extended time to stabilize the country.
The survey found that only
one in eight Americans currently favors an immediate pullout
of U.S. forces, while a solid majority continues to agree with
Bush that the United States must remain in Iraq until civil order
is restored -- a goal that most of those surveyed acknowledge
is, at best, several years away."
The article misrepresents the
actual numbers as published under "Poll
Data" which can be accessed through the article's webpage
Question #7 under "Poll
Data" reads: "Do you think the United States should
keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored
there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties;
OR, do you think the United States should withdraw its military
forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties,
even if it means civil order is not restored there?
Keep forces = 58%
Withdraw forces = 41%
No opinion = 2%
41% is just over two out of
five, not "one in eight" (12.5%) as the second paragraph
suggests. And 8% over half is not a "solid majority"
for "staying the course." It would be more accurately
described as a "slim majority!
I have studied the Poll Data,
and I don't know where the Post gets "one in eight"
for immediate pullout.
The graph on the website that
reads "Just your best guess, about how much longer do you
think the United States will need to keep U.S. military forces
in Iraq?" (Question #15) shows just 6% support "pull
out now," which is not "one in eight;" it's less
than half that: one in sixteen. But Question #15 can be understood
as a strategic and not a political question, and so it is not
as reliable question of U.S. support for continued occupation
vs withdrawal as question #7.
If this was an accident, it
was a pretty sloppy one.
Mike Schaefer can be reached at: instruggle@hotmail.com
