February 1, 2011
who knows anything about the regime of Egyptian dictator Hosni
Mubarak, knows that one of the main roles of his government has been
to protect and buffer Israel (and its illegal and genocidal crimes
against the Palestinians). So recent reports that Israel is afraid
and worried about the Egyptian revolution  is a cause for
celebration for all Arabs everywhere and for all those who stand
against injustice, colonial apartheid, and Israel’s illegal and
brutal occupation of the Palestinians.
Arabs grew up hearing one repeated political mantra: "If Egypt
rises, we will all rise." And now as Egypt is in the process of
a magnificent people’s uprising it has sparked hope for the
region and most of all for Palestine. The hope is that, triggered by
the revolution in Tunisia, the Egyptian revolution will spread like
wild fire and crescendo into a regional revolt against despots
and dictators throughout the entire Middle East.
Change on the Brink?
the Arab people succeed in ousting the despotic, treasonous rulers of
the Middle East—who oppress their own people while serving the
neo-colonial, imperial, and/or geo-political interests of the West,
including tolerating and facilitating Israel’s crimes in
Palestine—then they may finally be able to live as free and
self-determining peoples and eventually help to bring the same
reality to the Palestinians. Even if other countries in the region do
not follow suit with analogous revolutions, however, what happens in
Egypt in the months and years following the capitulation of Mubarak,
will still resonate throughout the Middle East and may greatly alter
the geo-political reality of the region. This is because Egypt is the
largest in population and is the most politically and culturally
significant Arab country in the Middle East.
they have not played a leading role (or even a significant one) in
the uprising, the Muslim Brotherhood would be the likely winner of a
genuinely free election in Egypt according to most opinion polls .
As Gwynne Dyer explains:
first thing they [Muslim Brotherhood] have promised to do if they
win power is to hold a referendum on Egypt's peace treaty with
Israel. And most Egyptians, according to the same polls, would vote
to cancel it" .
new Egyptian stance on Israel would have far-reaching repercussions
for the region and hopefully, finally for the people of Palestine.
Whether or not the Muslim Brotherhood will come to power (and I do
not claim that this would be as good for the Egyptians as it
may be for the Palestinians) and whether or not there will be a
cessation to Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel remains to be
seen, but even a suggestion of such changes begins to paint a
potentially very different geo-political landscape.
Could/Should Rule Egypt?
question of who is best suited to rule Egypt once Mubarak is gone is
a tough one and is still up in the air. The revolution seems to lack
any real leadership, save for Mohamed ElBaradei who may be emerging
as the default voice of the opposition. However, Mohamed ElBaradei is
not the right person to head any permanent post-revolution
government, for numerous reasons:
very fact that Western powers seem to support or prefer him  is
problematic to those opposed to U.S and western meddling in the
region. Egyptians do not want or need another possible western
client as president.
ElBaradei’s status as a trustee of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s
(a globalist and realpolitik imperial strategist for the U.S)
International Crisis Group  is a red flag and an
indication of what his agenda may be and where his allegiances may
lie (with power politics/U.S domination proponents and globalists of
an outsider, ElBaradei does not know enough about Egypt’s
internal politics and realities, and thus could not respond to and
assess the true needs of the people and the country .
will Egypt survive without U.S "aid"?
the Muslim Brotherhood (or any group unwilling to play ball with
Israel and the U.S for that matter) are elected post-revolution, then
Egypt will surely loose its I.5 billion dollars in annual "aid"
(i.e bribery) from the U.S. However, this does not mean that the
country will starve.
Russia and/or Iran may step in to pick up the financial slack (though
nowhere in scope to the amount of the U.S.) Iran would be more than
happy to open another front to help de-stabilize Israel. Or perhaps
Saudi Arabia will step in to counter-act and benefit from the Unites
States weakness in the region, opening a backdoor channel or pipeline
Egyptians have been conditioned to live in utter fear of "being
taken over by Iran"  and may be reluctant to receive
patronage from it. Ideally the best way forward for Egypt is for it
to be truly autonomous and self-sufficient. However, the reality of
the geo-politics of the region and of Egypt’s impoverished
economic conditions dictates that Egypt may need to continue
receiving some form of external "aid" from an outside party
or parties. And it cannot be refuted that it is better for Egypt to
be indebted to countries that are not beholden to Israel, than
for it to continue to serve as an Israeli-U.S patsy and facilitate
the genocide of Palestinians.
Possible Alternative Outcomes of the Uprising 
a human being (and a Palestinian-Egyptian) I am extremely hopeful and
optimistic about the reality of a full-fledged people’s
revolution (with the emergence of a new and sincere—i.e
true to the people—opposition leadership in Egypt) that will
resonate and spread to other Middle Eastern dictatorial and/or client
regimes! At the same time, from an analytical perspective, I am aware
that there are three other distinct possibilities.
aforementioned Arab maxim that translates into "If Egypt rises,
we will all rise," is also well known to the Israelis (and the
Anglo-American Middle East policy apparatus). In light of this, any
consequences afforded to Israel and the U.S may be viewed
possible outcome is that the people’s revolt will bring down
the Mubarak regime and replace it with a reactionary (albeit elected)
government headed by the Muslim brotherhood. Israel and the U.S will
view this in the context of their other client states in the region,
fearing a total collapse of their Middle East agenda. This situation
would be highly problematic and alarming to Israel and the U.S (and
their allies). Any resultant military actions and/or sanctions
(including the denial of communications services) by the West would
be viewed as war on the people of the region. This situation could
easily escalate into full-blown regional revolutionary war (painted
in the western media as an "Islamic threat") that would
likely draw in other players with interests in the region such as
China, Iran and Russia. Relative to the question of the Palestinian
occupation, this is the most favourable of the three alternatives
possibility is that a functionally similar replacement-government is
put in (under the leadership of ElBaradei or another Western
favourite) as a result of co-option of the revolution, and with
complicity of the army. In this case the people will have (the
appearance of) a new government and some domestic cosmetic changes
but ultimately will still feel that underlying issues concerning
Israel and U.S interference will remain unresolved. As a result the
tension will continue and is likely to boil over into another popular
uprising in the future. Israel and the U.S would surely see this as
an option for controlling and containing similar rebellions in
neighbouring client states.
(and hopefully, for the sake of the Egyptian people, the
least likely) Possibility
covert and/or direct support from Israel and the West, Mubarak
manages to either crush or severely undermine the people’s
uprising and remain in power or rule from the sidelines through a new
Western client government. The West will view this as a sure-fire
opportunity to defeat or intimidate any would-be rebellions in
neighbouring states and to recalibrate their grip on Arab despots/
their regional patsies (i.e. do what you are told because you are
disposable)-- not to mention that the people of neighbouring Arab
states would be greatly discouraged from persisting in their own
revolutions if Mubarak is able to successfully counter the popular
uprising. In this scenario most of Egypt will continue to live as it
has until very recently. This would be the worst possible outcome
relative to both the Egyptian people and most people of the region,
Ghada Chehade is an independent political
analyst, PhD Candidate, poet, and activist living in Montreal.
 For an example of such conditioning see-
 Special thanks to Silvestre Lilly for his
contribution to the formulation of these