All Arabs grew up hearing one repeated political mantra: "If Egypt rises, we will all rise." And now as Egypt is in the process of a magnificent people’s uprising it has sparked hope for the region and most of all for Palestine. The hope is that, triggered by the revolution in Tunisia, the Egyptian revolution will spread like wild fire and crescendo into a regional revolt against despots and dictators throughout the entire Middle East.

Real Change on the Brink?

If the Arab people succeed in ousting the despotic, treasonous rulers of the Middle East—who oppress their own people while serving the neo-colonial, imperial, and/or geo-political interests of the West, including tolerating and facilitating Israel’s crimes in Palestine—then they may finally be able to live as free and self-determining peoples and eventually help to bring the same reality to the Palestinians. Even if other countries in the region do not follow suit with analogous revolutions, however, what happens in Egypt in the months and years following the capitulation of Mubarak, will still resonate throughout the Middle East and may greatly alter the geo-political reality of the region. This is because Egypt is the largest in population and is the most politically and culturally significant Arab country in the Middle East.

While they have not played a leading role (or even a significant one) in the uprising, the Muslim Brotherhood would be the likely winner of a genuinely free election in Egypt according to most opinion polls [2]. As Gwynne Dyer explains:

"…the first thing they [Muslim Brotherhood] have promised to do if they win power is to hold a referendum on Egypt's peace treaty with Israel. And most Egyptians, according to the same polls, would vote to cancel it" [3].

A new Egyptian stance on Israel would have far-reaching repercussions for the region and hopefully, finally for the people of Palestine. Whether or not the Muslim Brotherhood will come to power (and I do not claim that this would be as good for the Egyptians as it may be for the Palestinians) and whether or not there will be a cessation to Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel remains to be seen, but even a suggestion of such changes begins to paint a potentially very different geo-political landscape.

Who Could/Should Rule Egypt?

The question of who is best suited to rule Egypt once Mubarak is gone is a tough one and is still up in the air. The revolution seems to lack any real leadership, save for Mohamed ElBaradei who may be emerging as the default voice of the opposition. However, Mohamed ElBaradei is not the right person to head any permanent post-revolution government, for numerous reasons:

• The very fact that Western powers seem to support or prefer him [4] is problematic to those opposed to U.S and western meddling in the region. Egyptians do not want or need another possible western client as president.

• Mohamed ElBaradei’s status as a trustee of Zbigniew Brzezinski’s (a globalist and realpolitik imperial strategist for the U.S) International Crisis Group [5] is a red flag and an indication of what his agenda may be and where his allegiances may lie (with power politics/U.S domination proponents and globalists of the West)

• Being an outsider, ElBaradei does not know enough about Egypt’s internal politics and realities, and thus could not respond to and assess the true needs of the people and the country [6].

How will Egypt survive without U.S "aid"?

If the Muslim Brotherhood (or any group unwilling to play ball with Israel and the U.S for that matter) are elected post-revolution, then Egypt will surely loose its I.5 billion dollars in annual "aid" (i.e bribery) from the U.S. However, this does not mean that the country will starve.

China, Russia and/or Iran may step in to pick up the financial slack (though nowhere in scope to the amount of the U.S.) Iran would be more than happy to open another front to help de-stabilize Israel. Or perhaps Saudi Arabia will step in to counter-act and benefit from the Unites States weakness in the region, opening a backdoor channel or pipeline to Egypt.

Many Egyptians have been conditioned to live in utter fear of "being taken over by Iran" [7] and may be reluctant to receive patronage from it. Ideally the best way forward for Egypt is for it to be truly autonomous and self-sufficient. However, the reality of the geo-politics of the region and of Egypt’s impoverished economic conditions dictates that Egypt may need to continue receiving some form of external "aid" from an outside party or parties. And it cannot be refuted that it is better for Egypt to be indebted to countries that are not beholden to Israel, than for it to continue to serve as an Israeli-U.S patsy and facilitate the genocide of Palestinians.

Three Possible Alternative Outcomes of the Uprising [8]

As a human being (and a Palestinian-Egyptian) I am extremely hopeful and optimistic about the reality of a full-fledged people’s revolution (with the emergence of a new and sincere—i.e true to the people—opposition leadership in Egypt) that will resonate and spread to other Middle Eastern dictatorial and/or client regimes! At the same time, from an analytical perspective, I am aware that there are three other distinct possibilities.

The aforementioned Arab maxim that translates into "If Egypt rises, we will all rise," is also well known to the Israelis (and the Anglo-American Middle East policy apparatus). In light of this, any consequences afforded to Israel and the U.S may be viewed accordingly.

First Possibility

One possible outcome is that the people’s revolt will bring down the Mubarak regime and replace it with a reactionary (albeit elected) government headed by the Muslim brotherhood. Israel and the U.S will view this in the context of their other client states in the region, fearing a total collapse of their Middle East agenda. This situation would be highly problematic and alarming to Israel and the U.S (and their allies). Any resultant military actions and/or sanctions (including the denial of communications services) by the West would be viewed as war on the people of the region. This situation could easily escalate into full-blown regional revolutionary war (painted in the western media as an "Islamic threat") that would likely draw in other players with interests in the region such as China, Iran and Russia. Relative to the question of the Palestinian occupation, this is the most favourable of the three alternatives

Second Possibility

Another possibility is that a functionally similar replacement-government is put in (under the leadership of ElBaradei or another Western favourite) as a result of co-option of the revolution, and with complicity of the army. In this case the people will have (the appearance of) a new government and some domestic cosmetic changes but ultimately will still feel that underlying issues concerning Israel and U.S interference will remain unresolved. As a result the tension will continue and is likely to boil over into another popular uprising in the future. Israel and the U.S would surely see this as an option for controlling and containing similar rebellions in neighbouring client states.

Third (and hopefully, for the sake of the Egyptian people, the least likely) Possibility

Through covert and/or direct support from Israel and the West, Mubarak manages to either crush or severely undermine the people’s uprising and remain in power or rule from the sidelines through a new Western client government. The West will view this as a sure-fire opportunity to defeat or intimidate any would-be rebellions in neighbouring states and to recalibrate their grip on Arab despots/ their regional patsies (i.e. do what you are told because you are disposable)-- not to mention that the people of neighbouring Arab states would be greatly discouraged from persisting in their own revolutions if Mubarak is able to successfully counter the popular uprising. In this scenario most of Egypt will continue to live as it has until very recently. This would be the worst possible outcome relative to both the Egyptian people and most people of the region, especially Palestinians!

Ghada Chehade is an independent political analyst, PhD Candidate, poet, and activist living in Montreal.

References:

[1] http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics/nation/israel-anxiously-monitoring-egypt-other-regional-states/articleshow/7391796.cms

http://hken.ibtimes.com/articles/106969/20110131/egypt-israel.htm

http://www.newser.com/article/d9l26me80/israel-watches-egypt-uprising-with-fear-its-important-ally-could-be-destabilized.html

[2] http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/army-286175-egypt-police.html

[3] Ibid.

[4] http://www.thestate.com/2011/01/28/1668580/us-says-confinement-of-elbaradei.html

http://www.ocregister.com/opinion/army-286175-egypt-police.html

[5] http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=22885182&privcapId=6043529&previousCapId=79327238&previousTitle=Europe's%20World

[6] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/elbaradei-is-far-from-an-easy-saviour-for-egyptians/article1885726/

[7] For an example of such conditioning see- http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704457604576011643624083766.html

[8] Special thanks to Silvestre Lilly for his contribution to the formulation of these