August 13, 2008
Summary: The rumors about a US armada sailing to the Gulf continue to rattle around the Internet, despite having almost no supporting evidence. Now Stratfor and Debkafile provide hard information on these rumors. Specific but contradictory information. For now I will stay with my original view: these rumors are a tower of guesses built on a slight foundation. Although they may prove to be true, so far they demonstrate only how little fact is required to kindle a firestorm on the Internet, a testimony to the gullibility of even well-educated and informed people (i.e., those who circulate these stories as facts, not speculation).
This is a follow-up to my August 9 post "More rumors of war: our naval armada has sailed to Iran!".
"U.S. Naval Update Map", Stratfor, 12 August 2008 — Excerpt (bold emphasis added):
As the Aug. 6 Update showed, the U.S. carrier fleet was in one of its most relaxed postures, with a single carrier - the Lincoln - in 5th Fleet, and a single carrier - the Reagan - in 7th Fleet near Japan. The rest of the "armada" was operating fairly close to the U.S. East or West Coast.
According to the U.S. Navy, on Aug. 12 the only carriers currently under way are the Lincoln and the Reagan.
The Lincoln began its current deployment on March 13, and the Reagan may replace it in the 5th Fleet (the Reagan began its deployment on May 19). It is not uncommon for these carriers to train together during a handover, but Washington has not chosen to maintain two carriers in the region since 2007.
… In sum, a surge of three carriers to the 5th Fleet would indeed be a noteworthy event, but there is not yet credible reason for concern based on the information available about the disposition of the U.S. Fleet. However, should we see the Reagan transit the Strait of Malacca and another carrier transit the Strait of Gibraltar, we will certainly have more to say at that point.
The USS Theodore Roosevelt {is} currently in its home port of Norfolk.
While the Kuwaiti daily did not name the ships it believes are heading for the Middle East, in "Two U.S. Aircraft Carriers Head for Gulf Region", the Media Line’s defense analyst said "they could be the USS Theodore Roosevelt and the USS Ronald Reagan." This was reiterated even more strongly (but citing no evidence other than his "sources") by Timothy Alexander in "Massive US Naval Armada Heads For Iran". {Note: after a brief search, I cannot find the Navy’s denial that Stratfor mentions, nor stories confirming that the Roosevelt is in Norfolk.}
Now Debkafile adds to the fog: Three major US naval strike forces due this week in Persian Gulf", 12 August 2008 — Excerpt:
DEBKAfile’s military sources note that the arrival of the three new American flotillas will raise to five the number of US strike forces in Middle East waters - an unprecedented build-up since the crisis erupted over Iran’s nuclear program.
This vast naval and air strength consists of more than 40 carriers, warships and submarines, some of the last nuclear-armed, opposite the Islamic Republic, a concentration last seen just before the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003.
… DEBKAfile’s military sources name the three US strike forces en route to the Gulf as the USS Theodore Roosevelt , the USS Ronald Reagan and the USS Iwo Jima . Already in place are the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea opposite Iranian shores and the USS Peleliu which is cruising in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
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My posts about a strike at Iran by the US
- 4GW at work in a community near you (19 October 2007) — Propaganda warming us up for war with Iran.
- War with Iran (9 November 2007) — Why Iran is not necessarily our enemy.
- Is Iran dangerous, or a paper tiger? (13 November 2007)
- The new NIE, another small step in the Decline of the State (10 December 2007)
- Will we bomb Iran, now that Admiral Fallon is gone? (17 March 2008)
- More post-Fallon overheating: "6 signs the US may be headed for war in Iran" (18 March 2008)
- A militant America, ready for war with Iran (6 May 2008)
- Another step towards war with Iran? (7 May 2008) — About Andrew Cockburn’s article in Counterpunch.
- "War With Iran Might Be Closer Than You Think" (13 May 2008) — About Philip Giraldi’s 9 May story in The American Conservative (see below).
- The most expensive psy-war campaign - ever! (13 July 2008)
- ISIS: "Can Military Strikes Destroy Iran’s Gas Centrifuge Program? Probably Not.", 8 August 2008
Here is the full archive of my posts about a possible strike at Iran by Israel or the US.
