Dictatorial regimes face sudden and shocking challenge to authority as words of a famous Tunisian poet prove prophetic

January 15, 2011

One of Tunisia's most famous poets, Abou al-Kacem Echebbi, whose face adorns the 30-dinar note, is best known in the wider Arab world for several verses that warn tyrants they will face bloody insurrection. "Who grows thorns will reap wounds," Echebbi wrote – a line that the country's dictatorial president, Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, might be reflecting on in his place of exile, Saudi Arabia.

He may not, however, be the only leader in the region to be doing so. For what has happened in Tunisia, a country which Ben Ali and his cronies controlled since he seized power in 1987, has a message for other regimes whose democratic credentials are less than shining. While it is not clear what Tunisia's path will be after Friday's insurrection, the complaints of the protesters are familiar across the region and have also, in some cases, prompted demonstrations. Algeria, home to an often restless young population, has seen protests about unemployment and food prices which began on 5 January and prompted a harsh crackdown. In Jordan, which saw demonstrations last week in five cities, the calls were very similar. There, too, the country's leader was assailed with demands to resign.

Nowhere has the link between the removal of Ben Ali and other countries been clearer than in Cairo, where on Friday night protests were held by opposition members outside the Tunisian embassy. Their message was explicit: President Hosni Mubarak should follow Ben Ali's example and leave his country, too.

The complaints of angry Tunisians are not surprising. What has shocked observers was how fragile the ousted president's police state proved when confronted by a political uprising.

They have realised that, on 17 December, when a desperate 26-year-old graduate turned vegetable seller set fire to himself and prompted the protests that brought down the Tunisian president, an alienated young man became a symbol of the powerless against the corrupt and powerful.

It is something many ageing autocrats in the region may face in the near future. And, with it, the prophetic realisation of Abou al-Kacem Echebbi's words.