July 20, 2005
The current political process in Iraq, as the
result of the January 30 elections shown to be rigged and flawed in an
article by Scott Ritter "Hijacking Democracy in Iraq" and later confirmed and expanded on by Seymour M. Hersh in his article "GET OUT THE VOTE…Did Washington try to manipulate Iraq’s election?", has reached the tar pit that is the writing of the new Iraqi constitution.
This
rigging of the political process by the United States, which actually
started as early as Bremer who gave veto powers to the Kurdish minority
over any future political system in Iraq has continued into the
elections in favor of the two major allies, interim Prime Minister
Allawi and the Kurdish population to the north, as its purveyors of
access and control over Iraq and its resources.
In a previous article I wrote "Anatomy of a civil war; a Lebanese perspective on Iraq",
I pointed out that the biggest vote rigging took place in the form of
unwarranted and ruthless military operations in Sunni areas conducted
by the occupation shortly before the January elections. The result of
which was the predictable withdrawal of the Sunnis from the electoral
process and the effective removal of their undesirable votes from the
ballot boxes; equivalent to twenty percent of the eligible electorate.
The
net result of all these intrusions, even though the occupation
authority failed to secure Allawi’s political future, was still a
couple of short-lived victories. The Shiites did not receive the
proportional representation that is due to them and were prevented from
achieving a majority, thereby, delaying the formation of a political
system sympathetic to Iran.
The other short-lived victory was
the disproportionately high Kurdish representation due to high turnout
and multiple voting by Kurdish individuals. It was believed that such
strong showing by the Kurds would give them a stronger say in the
writing of the constitution and secure their future as a long-term ally
of Washington.
Currently, even though the governing coalition is
Shiite and Kurd, the Kurds are complaining that they are not part of
the inner governing circle and that the Shiites are monopolizing power and marginalizing their ministers. They are also complaining that the Shiites have reneged on the agreement to repatriate Kurds in Kirkuk; a city they hope to be the capital of their autonomous region.
Clearly,
the delay by the Shiites to implement the repatriation agreement stems
from the unwillingness of Iraqi-Arabs to relinquish Iraqi territory and
reflect their true feeling about a federal system. Also, it reflects
their unwillingness to dislodge mostly Shiite constituents from Kirkuk
in order to make room for Kurds.
The Sunnis, even though they
now understand and appreciate their mistake of not joining the
electoral process, cannot rejoin now even if they wanted to. Only
today, three of their representatives on the committee drafting the
constitution were assassinated.
In another development, current
Prime Minister Jaafari just concluded a visit to Iran and signed
cooperation agreements described by Iran, to the dismay of the neocons,
as a new dawn in Iranian-Iraqi relationship; a delay of the inevitable
of barely seven months.
That would lead us to think that the
Shiites should be basking in their newfound powers. On the contrary,
the rise in the insurgency has undermined security, bankrupt the
government, and left it powerless and unable to protect the population
with its leading Shiite members publicly asking that their respective
militias be allowed to assist in securing their neighborhoods.
Barely
seven months after these purple-fingered and unprecedented elections,
the honeymoon had long since passed, and, with the approach of the next
milestone, the writing of the new constitution, we see Iraq on the
verge of a divorce, i.e. a civil war.
The constitution, even if
written, risks not being approved. You might ask, what is the point in
writing it? A rule in its approval vote, designed to give veto powers
to the Kurds to help them negotiate and secure a federal system and
autonomy, did not take into account that by default it also gave the
Sunnis such veto power and that they are very likely to exercise it.
Without
the writing and approval of the constitution, the biggest losers are
the Kurds and the neocons. The neocons commitment to an autonomous
Kurdish territory is what kept the Kurds in the political process and
the guarantee would have been through the new Iraqi constitution.
This
new constitution would also give Washington the legal framework to
provide the Kurds with unconditional support, a la Israel. It was also
intended to be the wide-open back door for future US intervention in
Iraq long after troop withdrawal and certainly in the case of a civil
war.
Faced with an election that was rigged, a representation
that is not proportional and that disenfranchised a large segment of
the population, a security situation that is deteriorating, a
constitution that might not be written let alone approved,
disenchantment on all front, Kurdish, Sunni, Shiite, and the occupier,
what is left to do in order to save face? What is left to do in order
to salvage the situation? What is left to do in order to address the
grievances of all parties and most importantly to ensure that the new
Iraq is built on proportional representation of its constituency?
There
are three options. I am going to ignore the middle of the road one
since it has been tried for the last 5 months and has failed.
The
option I favor is the one I call the right thing to do option, which
rarely ever happens. This option hinges on the parties agreeing that
they have reached a dead end, that the process was highly flawed, and
that it is best to start anew with a clean slate under the auspices of
the UN. This option also entails that the Bush administration issues
the most sincere apology to the Afghani, Iraqi, and American people for
the horrors they put them through;
there is also a need to apologize to the rest of the world but not with
the same degree of sincerity. Lastly, a mass resignation of the Bush
administration with a call for new general elections with control of
the country relinquished to the UN while things are sorted out. It is
only then that the world could forgive and forget and the Iraq war
would not be hailed as the war that brought democracy to Iraq; it would
be hailed as the war that brought democracy back to the US via Iraq –
for some reason, I feel compelled to warn that this paragraph contained
intentional sarcasm.
What is most likely to happen is the
horrible option where Iraq plunges into a full-blown civil war, which I
predict to last about five years. Within five years, the warring
factions and the population at large will reach the traditional war
fatigue and the realization that Iraq is exactly where it was five
years ago except there are less people around. There will be a rush to
get the warring factions to sit together at a peace conference either
in Oman or a resort in Sinai. The Kurds by the end of the talks will
get a lesser form of autonomy but not a federal system and not Kirkuk.
The United States will still be the guarantor of that autonomy with a
much smaller back door for future intervention. The Sunnis and the
Shiites will both get the proportionate representation they deserve.
The country’s resources will be equally shared among the population.
Unfortunately,
the consequences of the dead end reached today as a result of
stupidity, greed, vindictiveness, and arrogance will only burden the
shoulders of the innocent; we know very well that some will pay with
their lives.
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