October 3, 2005

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Sunni officials and independent Iraqi politicians reacted with dismay on Monday at a move by the Shi'ite and Kurdish majority to make it harder to defeat an October 15 referendum on a new constitution.

Analysts also questioned the fairness of the move by Iraq's parliament, which set electoral rules making it far simpler for the draft constitution to pass -- as Shi'ites and Kurds want -- than for it to be defeated by Sunni opponents.

If the constitution is defeated, it would be a severe setback to the U.S.-driven political process in Iraq, where a Sunni-led insurgency has caused chaos for more than two years.

"It is a clear forgery," said Saleh al-Mutlaq, spokesman for the Iraqi National Dialogue, a leading Sunni Arab group, and one of those who helped draw up the new draft constitution.

"They want this constitution to pass despite the will of the people."

In a session on Sunday, Shi'ites and Kurds, who hold more than three quarters of parliament's 275 seats, decided the existing interim constitution should be interpreted in such a way as to create two different thresholds for the referendum.

For it to pass, a majority of those who turn out to vote have to say "Yes", while for it to be defeated, two-thirds of registered voters in three or more provinces have to say "No".

What the interim constitution actually says is: "The general referendum will be successful and the draft constitution ratified if a majority of the voters in Iraq approve and if two -thirds of the voters in three or more governorates do not reject it."

The interim constitution's wording suggests "voters" means those who turn out to vote in both cases, not registered voters, which is a much higher benchmark. In elections in January, less than 60 percent of Iraqis who registered actually voted.

"DOUBLE STANDARD"

"It's unfair and I didn't vote for it," Mahmoud Othman, an independent Kurdish member of parliament, told Reuters. "It's a double standard and it shouldn't have happened."

With just a handful of seats in parliament after a boycott of January's first post-Saddam Hussein polls, Sunnis were in no position to defeat the Shi'ite-Kurdish proposal.

Joost Hiltermann, an Iraq expert with the International Crisis Group, described the decision as a clear example of what happens when the majority decides it rules in a democracy.

"Obviously they want to win," he said of the Sh'ites and Kurds, who tailored parts of the constitution to suit themselves.

"But to play by this kind of majoritarian rule is very dangerous, it's playing with fire," he told Reuters from Amman. "They are excluding one community to make it look as if they have agreement."

Hiltermann expressed concern that by further excluding the Sunni minority, the Shi'ites and Kurds would over time end up pushing more disaffected Sunnis toward the insurgency.

Farid Ayar, a member of Iraq's Electoral Commission, which is organising the referendum, told Reuters the interim constitution clearly intended to define voters in the referendum as those who turn out to vote, not registered voters.

"It is an issue and it needs to be resolved," he said.

Mutlaq, the Sunni politician, said he and others may now call on Sunnis to boycott the referendum, a move that could further marginalise the community from the political process.

Other analysts also conceded that there was unfairness in parliament's decision, but said it just went to show how essential it was that the constitution was approved.

"The fact is the consequences of this constitution being rejected are massive, they're just too ghastly to contemplate," said Martin Navias, a research associate at the center for defense studies at King's College London.

"If this referendum is rejected, it's an explicit rejection of the whole political process ... It cannot be allowed to fail."

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