January 1, 2006


BASRA, Iraq — Tara Yousif shook her head in dismay when she heard the preliminary election results on TV.

According to the figures released by the Independent Electoral Commission, the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance held an unassailable lead in the vote for the country's first permanent National Assembly. The Alliance captured 77 percent of the vote in Yousif's home province of Basra, while the secular Iraqi National List led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi came a distant second with 11 percent.

"I will leave Iraq if these results are true," said the 22-year-old Shiite, who is unemployed and lives with her mother.

Yousif's unhappiness with the results is mostly personal. She said her father was killed in 2003 because he had formerly been a local leader in deposed President Saddam Hussein's dissolved Baath Party. "I know who killed my father, but I can't do anything against them because those criminals are in power now," she said.

More common in this Shiite-dominated southern city was the reaction of Salim Abu al-Hel, a 55-year-old medic, to the election results. "Everyone should know that the Shiites are the majority in Iraq and that they are the ones who are going to rule the country," he said.

But even those pleased with the results, which show the Shiites capturing a large majority of votes despite the substantial increase in the number of Sunnis participating in the election, expressed some concerns about the outcome.

Some said they were worried by what they saw as undue influence exerted from nearby Iran in the vote. Others suspected fraud may account for the surprisingly large margin of victory for Shiite candidates. And some are just angry that Shiite politicians, whom they say have done little to improve basic public services, are likely to remain in power.

In front of a mosque where the southern representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani leads Friday prayers, dozens of young people, donning green head-sashes, raised ink-stained fingers showing they had voted and shouted out slogans in support of Sistani, Iraq's top Shiite cleric. Sistani never endorsed a particular coalition in this election, but his advice to voters to choose political groups with religious leanings provided indirect support for Shiite candidates.

Market trader Ahmed Shahab, 55, watched the impromptu demonstration with disgust. "I'd have joined them if they'd got together to lobby for an increase in the electricity supply, the elimination of unemployment and an end to assassinations," he said. "They used to carry pictures of Saddam and cheer for him. Now they're back, chanting again."

Many worry that the election results will only increase the influence Iran already displays over the southern part of Iraq. Banners written in Persian and posters depicting Iranian clerics are already visible in many Basra neighborhoods and many Shiites who currently live in the city had spent years in Iran, fleeing Saddam's rule.

"Most of the local party leaders and senior provincial (government) staff have lived in Iran," said Ahmed Arif, 43, an Arabic-language teacher. "They are now pursuing Iranian politics in the city, and looking after Iranian interests."

Yousif is equally uncomfortable with the growing Iranian influence. "Anyone who wants to live in the Islamic Republic of Iran should live there, not in Basra," she said. "Basra is a city for everyone."


Safaa Mansoor is a journalist in Iraq who writes for The Institute for War & Peace Reporting, a non-profit organization that trains journalists in areas of conflict.