January 3, 2005
Robert Dreyfuss is the author of Devil's Game: How the United States Helped Unleash Fundamentalist Islam (Henry Holt/Metropolitan Books, 2005). Dreyfuss is a
freelance writer based in Alexandria, Va., who specializes in politics
and national security issues. He is a contributing editor at The Nation, a contributing writer at Mother Jones, a senior correspondent for The American Prospect, and a frequent contributor to Rolling Stone.He can be reached at his website: www.robertdreyfuss.com.
The two most pressing foreign policy problems for
the Bush administration in 2006—indeed, they might be called twin
crises—are, first, the unraveling of Iraq and the emergence of a
theocracy in Baghdad under the control of the Shiite religious parties,
and second, the serious (though somewhat overblown and artificial)
showdown that is looming over Iran's alleged nuclear program. Not
surprisingly, the crises in Iraq and Iran are closely related, not
least because Iran's ruling clergy is closely allied to the theocrats
in Baghdad.
Handled expertly, both crises might be defused. The war in Iraq
could end, meaning that by the end of 2006 the United States could be
out of Iraq, leaving behind a unitary state with a semblance of
political stability. And the crisis in Iran might be resolved, in the
form of a package deal giving broad political and economic concessions
to Iran, in exchange for Tehran's agreement to end its nuclear program
and accept a Russian-led compromise arrangement.
Handled clumsily, the two crises will become one. Iraq will break
up, leaving a majority Shiite-led theocracy (with nearly all of Iraq's
oil) in place in southern and eastern Iraq. That regime would align
itself closely with Iran, forming a fundamentalist Iran-Iraq axis that
would assume an increasingly anti-American (and anti-Saudi) character.
Were that to happen, or if the Bush administration's hawks decide to
preempt it, the United States will find itself at the end of 2006
fighting a mostly Sunni, Baathist-led insurgency in western Iraq while
simultaneously battling a formidable Shiite Iraq-Iran partnership to
the east.
Based on its track record, we can count on the Bush administration to take the path of unfettered clumsiness.
On Iran, there are dangerous rumblings that the United States and
Israel, possibly in coordination with NATO and other regional powers,
are preparing military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities. Over
the past few days, various news reports (in newspapers in Germany,
along with Israel's Haaretz and the Jerusalem Post )
reported that Washington is consulting with NATO, Turkey, Pakistan,
Jordan and Oman about an assault on Iran's nuclear installations. In
Israel, too, top officials have issued rather alarmist warnings over
the past few days that Iran will soon reach the point of no return in
its quest for a nuclear weapon, while asserting that Israel has no
intention of attacking Iran.
The White House continues to argue that Iran is backing Iraq's
insurgency, that Iran is a key state sponsor of world terrorism and
that Iran harbors Al Qaeda officials. And, according to The New York Times,
the United States has imposed unilateral sanctions on Chinese, Indian
and Austrian companies accused of arming Iran, an action that could
torpedo efforts to solve the Iran crisis peacefully. Noted the Times
: "New U.S. sanctions against nine foreign companies accused of aiding
Iran's weapons programs could signal a harder line toward Tehran by the
Bush administration and could hinder diplomatic efforts by Europe to
end the standoff over Iran's nuclear program, EU officials and analysts
said Wednesday."
At this stage, it's likely that talk of attacking Iran is just
saber-rattling, since such an attack would have incalculable,
destabilizing repercussions throughout the region, and among them would
be an all-out Iranian effort to overthrow the U.S. mission in
Iraq. And an attack on Iran would be strongly opposed by
Russia, China, India and most of Europe and the Arab world. But
neoconservatives in the United States, and co-thinkers in Israel
(notably, Benjamin Netanyahu of the Likud bloc and his allies in the
military), undoubtedly are looking for an opening to press for an
attack on Iran. And fueling the fire is the bombastic rhetoric from
Iran's President Ahmadinejad questioning whether the Jewish Holocaust
happened and suggesting Israel be "wiped off the map." In an
environment so volatile, it is foolish to dismiss the possibility of a
U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran sometime in 2006.
It would be wrong to take comfort in the idea that the Bush
administration neocons are contained or weakened and that realists and
cooler heads such as Secretary of State Rice are in control. Perhaps,
at the moment, the State Department's realists have the upper hand. But
that could change in a flash—after, say another major terrorist
incident or some bungling provocation by Iran's admittedly unstable,
even deranged leadership.
So what does this mean for Iraq?
In Iraq, Iran's cat's-paws—namely, the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq, its paramilitary Badr Brigade, the Al Dawa
party of Prime Minister Jaafari, and, to some extent, the forces of
Muqtada Sadr's Mahdi Army—are in control. They can cement their
alliance with the Kurds (who, like the Shiite religious parties) want
virtual independence (under the guise of federalist "autonomy") by
refusing to amend Iraq's absurd and dangerously divisive constitution
to meet Sunni concerns. Since the Dec. 15 election, Shiites and Kurds
have been busy putting together a government that excludes the Sunnis.
And for their part, the Sunnis have accused the Shiites of rigging
the vote, and have organized demonstrations of tens of thousands
of people to denounce the Dec. 15 result, meanwhile accusing the Shiite
militias of death squad activity, torture and even a hit list targeting
many prominent Sunni moderates and secular Shiite politicians. At least
five Shiite-run torture prisons have been uncovered thus far. And there
are signs, reported by Knight Ridder's Tom Lasseter, that the Kurds are
preparing a blitzkrieg to seize control of oil-rich Kirkuk province and
add it to their fiefdom.
Ambassador Khalilzad is scrambling in an effort to force the Shiites
and Kurds to make broad concessions to the Sunnis and to include both
Sunni and secular Shiite leaders in the new government coalition. But I
suspect he will have little or no success. Those few Sunnis who decide
to join the regime—and who are in turn allowed to join by the Shiite
mafia—will immediately become targets of the resistance fighters. And
the Shiites are not making it any easier. In the latest provocation,
the Iraqi election commission unilaterally decided that more than a
hundred Iraqis who ran for election on Dec. 15, many of whom were
actually elected, are ineligible to serve because they have alleged
ties to the Iraqi Baath Party.
So, despite the last-minute (and apparently desperate) efforts by
Khalilzad, it seems likely that the new (permanent) Iraqi government
that is formed sometime in the next month or so will be overwhelmingly
dominated by SCIRI, Dawa and the Mahdi Army. If so, it will adopt an
increasingly pro-Iranian character.
For the United States, that means that either Washington will have
to accept a pro-Iran regime in Baghdad or opt to confront it. And
confronting it means challenging both the Shiite religious parties in
Iraq (ironically, Washington's own creation) and, at the same time,
taking on Iran. Such a confrontation would be made immensely worse were
the United States or Israel to attack Iran's nuclear plants, since that
would solidify the Iran-Iraq axis, strengthen the ultra hardliners in
Iran's ruling elite, and give this rising new Shiite power enormous
credibility in the region. In other words, rather than a retreat from
Iraq, the United States would be drawn into a wider conflict.
As of now, the U.S. military—undoubtedly disgusted with the neocons
and their bungled war in Iraq—is quietly angling for a drawdown of
American forces in Iraq as part of a slow-motion, undeclared exit
strategy. No doubt, some of President Bush's political advisers
would prefer to see the same, in the hopes that voters would stop
blaming Bush for the debacle in Iraq. But the Trotskyite,
permanent-revolution neoconservatives won't be having any of that.
Maybe those neocons will in the end be no more than a speed bump on the
exit road from Iraq. But it would be wrong to count them out.
Meanwhile, there are few signs that the United States has any
intention of doing the one thing most necessary to get out of Iraq
while leaving that battered country relatively intact—namely,
negotiating a truce with the Baathists, the ex-military and the rest of
the non-Al Qaeda resistance. Aside from a few fits and starts, hints of
talks and some field operations, the United States appears unwilling to
risk a break with the SCIRI-led bloc by stating its intention to bring
the resistance into a deal. Khalilzad seems not to realize that a
handful of unrepresentative Sunnis, or a party such as the Sunni,
Muslim Brotherhood-linked Iraqi Islamic Party, cannot deliver the Sunni
population. Indeed, in ongoing talks with the Sunni but non-Arab Kurds,
the IPP has seemingly abandoned the rest of the Sunni bloc to hint that
it is ready to join the majority Shiite religious government.
As a result, the prognosis for Iraq is a continuing insurgency,
a new Iraqi government that leans toward Iran and a regime in Iran
unified around the notion of pursuing its nuclear option. So the
questions that remain are: Will Iraq, only, get worse in 2006? Or will
that include Iran, too?