January 9, 2006

Despite the best efforts of the Bush administration, increasing numbers of countries are removing or reducing their military forces deployed to Iraq. The coalition of the willing seems to be increasingly unwilling.

In all, the coalition has declined from a 2003 high of 38 nations and 50,000 troops to 28 nations and about 20,000 soldiers. The coalition has been shrinking for some time. Italy will withdraw 300 of its 2,800 troops this month as part of a phased pullout, and Spain and the Netherlands have already withdrawn either all or virtually all their troops.

The credibility of the coalition as an example of staunch international support for the US invasion of Iraq has always been somewhat suspect, considering its members over time have including small numbers of forces from countries such as Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Estonia, Tonga, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldova and Mongolia, to name a few.

Other countries have serious political opposition at home to keeping their forces in Iraq. As of mid-December, 201 non-US coalition forces had been killed in Iraq, including 98 from Britain, 27 from Italy, 18 from Ukraine, 17 from Poland, 13 from Bulgaria and 11 from Spain.

The withdrawals are not that militarily significant as, with the exception of Britain (which is down from an original 40,000 troop commitment to about 8,500), the other countries have not been fighting insurgents; but politically, they are the latest evidence of declining support for the US presence in Iraq.

The withdrawals, however, do have operational consequences. They will increase pressure on Iraq to deploy its own military and security forces, probably including many forces that are not yet fully trained or equipped.

Of course, given that US officials have been leaking the news that they expect to withdraw some troops from Iraq this year, it is not surprising that other nations would do the same.

Consider some recent news. For the US, the most positive news is that at the end of last month, Polish President Lech Kaczynski, as the supreme armed-forces commander, agreed to his cabinet's request to extent Poland's military mission in Iraq until at least the end of this year. But the size of the mission will be reduced from the current 1,400 troops to 900, with the possibility of a further reduction, and the mission's profile will change to focus chiefly on advice and training.

New Polish troops going to Iraq in March will maintain military readiness to support Iraqi forces if need be, but will not undertake military operations themselves.

It should be noted that this news had been expected, but the announcement was postponed to improve Poland's position in talks with Washington, with which it is negotiating military aid. Prime Minister Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz stressed, "The Americans are very much interested in the mission being perceived as an international one rather than solely as a US operation."

Also at the end of 2005, the US asked Japan to consider having a few senior, colonel-class, ground-troop officers remain in southern Iraq after a troop withdrawal from the southern city of Samawah, to participate in US provincial reconstruction teams in Iraq. Japan, however, has remained reluctant to join the teams.

On December 8, the Japanese government formally extended the deployment of its troops in Iraq into a third year, with an eye to withdrawing key ground troops as early as this summer. The country has just under 600 troops in the country on a strictly humanitarian reconstruction mission.

Another end-of-the-year development was the news that Denmark's 534 soldiers stationed in Iraq would come home this year. A pullout of Danish soldiers is expected to begin about October or November. The Danish forces' parliamentary mandate to operate in Iraq expires on February 1. The Danish government intends to request an extension until July 1.

On December 30, the last batch of 147 Bulgarian peacekeeping soldiers in Iraq arrived back home. Their two-year mission has now concluded, marking the return of about 400 troops deployed in Iraq since August 2003. The Bulgarian parliament decided in May to withdraw the contingent before the end of the year.

Ukraine has also withdrawn the last of its 150 troops. Evidently, the millions of dollars it took from the US for its past elections were not enough of an inducement to keep its troops there.

In the midst of President George W Bush's visit to Asia on November 19, South Korean defense officials said they were seeking to reduce their troop contribution in Iraq (the second-largest among US coalition partners, after Britain). South Korea's parliament approved a government plan on December 30 to bring home one-third of the country's troops, but extended the overall deployment for another year.

The plan calls for the withdrawal of about 1,000 of the 3,200 South Korean military personnel who are helping rebuild a Kurdish area of northern Iraq. The reduction begins in the first half of this year.

David Isenberg, a senior analyst with the Washington-based British American Security Information Council (BASIC), has a wide background in arms control and national security issues. The views expressed are his own.

Copyright 2006 Asia Times Online