Three years past the invasion, Iraq's future has never been so uncertain, writes Omayma Abdel-Latif


The litany of horrors visited upon Iraq during its three-year long occupation is rarely better expressed than in the words of Iraqis forced into exile. In a statement signed by a group of Iraqi intellectuals abroad, Iraqis spoke of a "brutal military occupation" which "killed and maimed hundreds of thousands, displaced millions, blighted the lives of an entire population and spoiled their environment, shattered our country's physical infrastructure, its civic institutions and its life-support systems, assaulted our culture and desecrated sacred sanctuaries, violated people with deviant cruelty and racist intent, implanted mercenaries and death squads, and encouraged corruption and sedition that threaten us as a people."

As Iraqis commemorated the third anniversary of the US-led invasion this week, such statements belied the strong sense of disappointment among some who, three years ago, were staunch proponents of the invasion. The sentiment expressed also belies a spreading collapse of confidence in the ongoing "political process" which many believe failed to fill the political vacuum opened with the fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein.

It was perhaps no coincidence that only a few days before the anniversary, a US raid near the city of Balad killed 11 Iraqi civilians including four children and a six-month old baby; an incident which served as yet another reminder of a brutal occupation that continues to claim the lives of innocent Iraqis to this day. A report issued by Iraqi police on the incident revealed in chilling detail that something has gone badly wrong: "American forces used helicopters to drop troops on the house of Faiz Harat Khalaf situated in the Abu Sifa village of the Ishaqi district. The American forces gathered the family members in one room and executed 11 people, including five children, four women and two men, then they bombed the house, burned three vehicles and killed their animals."

Last November, a similar incident took place when US marines killed 15 Iraqi civilians in Haditha in reprisal for a bomb attack on a US patrol.

Until now there are differing accounts as to the number of Iraqi civilians killed since the invasion. Iraqi Body Count (IBC) -- which counts only confirmed deaths reported in two Western media sources -- puts the number at 37,832 civilians. A 2004 report published by The Lancet, a high-respected British medical journal, set the number at 100,000. On the basis of that report, many now suspect the total civilian loss to be around 300,000 lives. The third year of the war witnessed the highest death rate among Iraqi civilians, according to the IBC website.

For their part, US occupying forces commemorated this week's anniversary with yet another military operation, this time entitled Operation Swarmer; reportedly the biggest air operation since the invasion. During the past three years, US-led forces carried out numerous operations under the pretext of rooting out the "insurgency". Many analysts viewed this latest operation as a politically motivated cover for the US's failing strategy in Iraq; particularly when the anniversary came at a time when a spate of opinion polls have shown support for the war amongst the American public to be waning and that President George Bush's popularity is flagging. Few but Bush, it seems, believe that this administration is following "a strategy that will lead to victory and make the country secure". Indeed, this administration could hardly be further from achieving those goals.

The Samaraa bombing last month has unleashed a wave of sectarian violence that threatened to push Iraq into the abyss of civil war. Some observers of Iraqi affairs already describe the violence as "low intensity civil war", as US professor Juan Cole once described it. Iraqi politicians voiced similar concerns. Former interim Iraqi prime minister Iyad Allawi acknowledged in press statements that Iraq was "in grip of a civil war". "We are losing each day an average of 50 to 60 people throughout the country," Allawi said. "If this is not civil war, then God knows what civil war is."

The days leading up to the third anniversary were marked by some of the worst sectarian violence the country has witnessed during the past three years. On Monday, at least 40 people were reported killed in sectarian violence. Since the bombing in Samaraa at least 1,000 Iraqis have been killed, with Iraqis bracing themselves for worse to come. A growing numbers of Iraqis believe that the US occupation authorities along with the post-invasion political class have fuelled sectarian tension by adopting sectarian policies.

"The Americans," said Iraqi analyst Wamidh Nadhmi, "wanted to create a situation where Iraq's different ethnic and religious groups become isolated from one another and instead of having the US as the number one enemy, Iraqis are now fighting each other. It is the only way to break the Iraqi resistance." Iraq, Nadhmi continued, was moving towards a point of no return. Nada Omran, an Iraqi journalist, reports that relations between the country's different ethnic and religious groups have reached their lowest ebb since the invasion. "Things have never been worse," she said. "Iraq's social fabric is tearing apart and the safety net of cross-sectarian affiliations are weakened by sectarian tension. While many of us hate to say it, we were better off under Saddam," said Omran, who works for Aswat Iraqiya news agency.

While post-Saddam era nears the beginning of its fourth year, deadlock over the formation of a permanent government, almost four months after elections on 15 December, illustrates the futility of the so-called "political process", according to Iraqis. In an attempt to settle disputes over the handling of the security situation, a national security body was formed, originally a demand put forward by the Sunni Bloc in the National Assembly. The body will be in charge of making any decision to go to war, declare a state of emergency or other security related resolutions. It will consist of 19 members with each political bloc represented according to its representation in the assembly. But the formation of such a body will not solve indecisiveness on the formation of a government, which many believe is the only hope to save Iraqis from falling into a deeper cycle of violence.

Many analysts speak of the "injurious impact on the minds of many" of prevalent violence; a reading that will certainly hold true if a civil war breaks out, its impact in all likelihood spilling over Iraqi borders into many other parts of the Middle East region. The "Iraq effect" which psychiatrists refer to in allusion to the impact fighting in Iraq leaves on foreign soldiers will also exert a uniquely damaging effect on neighbouring countries.

While the world commemorated the invasion via anti-war marches and protests across the globe -- although with modest turnout compared to 2003 -- there was one very significant march that escaped much of the world's attention. Hundreds of oil workers in Basra staged a rally against the US occupation and the privatisation of the oil industry.

As Iraq enters its fourth year under occupation, Iraqis are bracing themselves for more violence; at least this is what Bush predicted in his speech when he talked about "more tough violence" awaiting Iraqis. The savagery Iraqis have witnessed during three years of kidnappings, car bombings, US-led raids, civilians shot by US patrols or humiliated at checkpoints, is likely to remain the order of the day.

"I was supportive of the invasion," says 27- year-old Jawad, an Iraqi translator who lives in Baghdad, "I believed that it would lead us to a better life." Yet after three years, "what we ended up with is a strong sense that we have been conquered not liberated. The problem is that by the time we reached this conclusion, Iraqis have turned against each other rather than against the occupying enemy," he said.