March 27, 2006

I keep reading that American officials are hanging around Turkey, arranging for Turkish participation in the attack on Iran.  This doesn’t make any sense.  If Iran is attacked – and I still think there is no chance of that happening, but all the talk about it has successfully kept the price of oil up – the goal will be Iraq-style 'regime change’, followed closely by an Iraq-style, Israel-mandated break-up of the country into pieces.  The north will naturally be broken off to join the new Greater Kurdistan being formed in northern Iraq. A similar break-up of Syria will lead to eastern Syria joining Kurdistan as well.  At that point, the pressures for eastern Turkey to join the new Greater Kurdistan will be enormous.  Suddenly Turkey, which likes being a rectangular country, will be square.  Since the inevitable conclusion of an attack on Iran is the destruction of modern Turkey, I don’t think we’ll be seeing too much Turkish help for any attack on Iran.  In fact, what we’re seeing is an improvement in Turkish-Iranian relations as they face a common set of enemies.