informazione dal medio oriente
    information from middle east
    المعلومات من الشرق الأوسط

[ home page] | [ tutte le notizie/all news ] | [ download banner] | [ ultimo aggiornamento/last update 28/08/2019 00:45 ] 23122

english italiano

  [ Subscribe our newsletter!   -   Iscriviti alla nostra newsletter! ]  


Uruknet on Alexa

End Gaza Siege
End Gaza Siege


:: Segnala Uruknet agli amici. Clicka qui.
:: Invite your friends to Uruknet. Click here.

:: Segnalaci un articolo
:: Tell us of an article

Wargaming Iran


May 6, 2006

I’m convinced that Iran isn’t under any real threat from the Americans, and all the discussion is just a combination of making it seem that the Bush Administration still has relevance (unsuccessful), and talking up the price of oil (very successful).  Nevertheless, it is interesting to think through what would happen if  the Americans or Israelis dropped some bombs on what they claim are Iranian nuclear installations.

First, there would be no 'regime change’.  The religious leadership is diffuse, and even if a few Mullahs were killed, the rest would remain, with an even more negative attitude towards the United States.  More importantly, the Iranian people, who chafe under current religious meddling in politics, would be firmly behind their government and religious leadership.

Secondly, the ability of the Iranians to fight back would in no way be impeded.  While terrorism is always a possibility, Iran’s ace in the hole is the geographical fact that it controls transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.  The most obvious and most devastating counterattack would simply be to sink an American warship or a representative oil tanker, and make it clear that no more tankers will pass through.  Iran has been buying armaments for just this kind of eventuality.  Even if Iran couldn’t completely block the Strait, the mere threat of attack would be enough to stop the tankers.  The price of oil would instantly skyrocket, and American and world recession wouldn’t be far behind. 

The Americans would have to do something to protect the flow of oil.  The only possible thing to do is the thing that bombing is supposed to replace, boots on the ground.  Iran has two to three times the population of Iraq, a much more challenging geography, and has not been weakened, like Iraq, by years of sanctions.  The 150,000 troops in Iraq weren’t sufficient, so how many troops would be required for Iran?  500,000?  How many more American troops would be required in Iraq due to Iranian-arranged attacks against them there?  How much would it all cost?  Some multiple of the one to two trillion that the attack on Iraq will cost.  The United States has neither the troops nor the money to follow through on the occupation required after the bombing.  On top of all that, the world can’t do without the Iranian oil that would be removed from the market due to sabotage during the occupation (just look at what’s happening in Iraq). 

Those who think that an attack on Iran would be like Clinton’s bombing attack on the Serbians are hallucinating.  The attack will inevitably lead to the necessity of a full American occupation of Iran.  Even with the assistance of other countries who want to protect the flow of oil, Americans will bear the brunt of the human, public relations, and financial costs of this occupation, and the United States simply can’t afford it. 


:: Article nr. 23122 sent on 07-may-2006 03:32 ECT


Link: xymphora.blogspot.com/2006/05/wargaming-iran.html

:: The views expressed in this article are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of this website.

The section for the comments of our readers has been closed, because of many out-of-topics.
Now you can post your own comments into our Facebook page: www.facebook.com/uruknet

Warning: include(./share/share2.php): failed to open stream: No such file or directory in /home/content/25/8427425/html/vhosts/uruknet/colonna-centrale-pagina-ansi.php on line 385

Warning: include(): Failed opening './share/share2.php' for inclusion (include_path='.:/usr/local/php5_6/lib/php') in /home/content/25/8427425/html/vhosts/uruknet/colonna-centrale-pagina-ansi.php on line 385

[ Printable version ] | [ Send it to a friend ]

[ Contatto/Contact ] | [ Home Page ] | [Tutte le notizie/All news ]

Uruknet on Twitter

:: RSS updated to 2.0

:: English
:: Italiano

:: Uruknet for your mobile phone:

Uruknet on Facebook

:: Motore di ricerca / Search Engine

the web

:: Immagini / Pictures


The newsletter archive

L'Impero si è fermato a Bahgdad, by Valeria Poletti

Modulo per ordini


:: Newsletter

:: Comments

Haq Agency
Haq Agency - English

Haq Agency - Arabic

AMSI - Association of Muslim Scholars in Iraq - English

AMSI - Association of Muslim Scholars in Iraq - Arabic

Font size
1 2 3

:: All events


[ home page] | [ tutte le notizie/all news ] | [ download banner] | [ ultimo aggiornamento/last update 28/08/2019 00:45 ]

Uruknet receives daily many hacking attempts. To prevent this, we have 10 websites on 6 servers in different places. So, if the website is slow or it does not answer, you can recall one of the other web sites: www.uruknet.info www.uruknet.de www.uruknet.biz www.uruknet.org.uk www.uruknet.com www.uruknet.org - www.uruknet.it www.uruknet.eu www.uruknet.net www.uruknet.web.at.it

:: This site contains copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available in our efforts to advance understanding of environmental, political, human rights, economic, democracy, scientific, and social justice issues, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law. In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, the material on this site is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes. For more info go to: http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml. If you wish to use copyrighted material from this site for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use', you must obtain permission from the copyright owner.
::  We always mention the author and link the original site and page of every article.
uruknet, uruklink, iraq, uruqlink, iraq, irak, irakeno, iraqui, uruk, uruqlink, saddam hussein, baghdad, mesopotamia, babilonia, uday, qusay, udai, qusai,hussein, feddayn, fedayn saddam, mujaheddin, mojahidin, tarek aziz, chalabi, iraqui, baath, ba'ht, Aljazira, aljazeera, Iraq, Saddam Hussein, Palestina, Sharon, Israele, Nasser, ahram, hayat, sharq awsat, iraqwar,irakwar All pictures

url originale


I nostri partner - Our Partners:

TEV S.r.l.

TEV S.r.l.: hosting


Progetto Niz

niz: news management



digitbrand: ".it" domains


Worlwide Mirror Web-Sites:
www.uruknet.info (Main)
www.uruknet.us (USA)
www.uruknet.su (Soviet Union)
www.uruknet.ru (Russia)
www.uruknet.it (Association)
www.uruknet.mobi (For Mobile Phones)
www.uruknet.org.uk (UK)
www.uruknet.de (Germany)
www.uruknet.ir (Iran)
www.uruknet.eu (Europe)
wap.uruknet.info (For Mobile Phones)
rss.uruknet.info (For Rss Feeds)

Vat Number: IT-97475012153