IOL, November 17, 2009

Frustrated by a chronically deadlocked peace process, under its rubric Israel continues to expand Jewish settlements in the West Bank and East Al-Quds, the Palestinian Authority (PA) is now seriously considering unilaterally declaring statehood on territories occupied by Israel during the 1967 war.

Earlier this month, PA Chairman Mahmud Abbas announced that he would not seek a second term in office as a president of the self-rule authority.

Citing Israel’s adamant refusal to freeze Jewish settlement expansion, and the American failure to pressure Israel in this regard, Abbas said he would take a number of unspecified measures to save the vital interests of the Palestinian people.

Last week, Abbas’ aide, Chief Palestinian negotiator Sa’eb Erakat, declared that 18 years of protracted negotiations with Israel produced no results.

Erakat said the Palestinians have been fed up with Israeli prevarications and stalling tactics.

"We have reached a decision to go to the UN Security Council to ask for recognition of an independent Palestinian state with Al-Quds as its capital within June-1967 borders," Erakat said.

"We are going to seek support from EU countries, Russia and other countries."

Persistent Despair

Recently, the Palestinian propensity to seek formal international recognition of a Palestinian state on the basis of the armistice lines of June 4, 1967, has become more pronounced after US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton praised Israeli settlement policy.

During her visit to occupied Palestine two weeks ago, Clinton described Israeli "concessions" pertaining to settlements as unprecedented. She also added that a total stoppage of settlement construction was never a sine-qua-non for the continuation of the peace process.

Her remarks infuriated Palestinians, including the normally calm Abbas, who responded by declaring his intention not to take part in the upcoming elections of 2010.

A number of Abbas’ aides went as far as saying that Abbas might order the dismantling of the PA itself.

The challenges facing the PA are further complicated by the difficulty of holding elections, due to Hamas’ opposition.

Hamas, which won a landslide victory in the 2006 elections, said it would not allow elections to take place in the Gaza Strip, arguing that organizing elections in the absence of national reconciliation would be a prescription for a national disaster.

Hamas has been accusing the Fateh-controlled PA of seeking to utilize the planned elections to destroy Hamas politically, probably in collusion with the United States and certain Arab regimes.

The Muslim group, which Israel has been trying to eliminate by military, economic, and other means, argued that it would be virtually impossible to hold free and fair elections under the police-state atmosphere now in place in the West Bank.

Along the same lines, the independent elections committee in Ramallah, which had been instructed to prepare for the ballots, declared last week that it would not be able to carry out its task due to Hamas’ opposition and also to Israel’s refusal to hold elections in Al-Quds, which the Jewish state considers part of its "eternal and undivided capital."

Several Obstacles

Palestinian officials have indicated that the PA would not be too hasty in their steps toward a declaration of statehood.

In 1988, the PLO declared statehood, but the decision remained a largely symbolic feat with little effect, if any, on the ground as Israel moved to block and scuttle any expression of Palestinian sovereignty.

"We are going to prepare for this well, and to hold political and diplomatic talks. We want the UN Security Council to discuss this matter only after we have been given assurances," said Nimr Hammad, chief political advisor to Abbas.

However, no matter how cautious and meticulous the PA will be in seeking UN endorsement of a Palestinian state, it seems that the mission will be an arduous uphill battle.

Indeed, in the absence of massive international backing, including vigorous and meaningful Arab and Muslim support, the goal of enlisting Western, especially American backing for the statehood scheme, may prove to be very illusive.

More to the point, in the absence of true Palestinian national unity, the continued showdown between Hamas and Fateh could corrode any real prospects toward achieving Palestinian statehood and ending the Israeli military occupation that started in 1967.

Israel and, to a lesser extent, the Obama administration have already reacted negatively to Palestinian plans to unilaterally declare statehood.

The extremist Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu has already threatened to take "unilateral steps if the PA took unilateral ones".

Israel’s Actions

"Any unilateral attempts by the PA will unravel the existing agreements between us, and could entail unilateral steps by Israel," Netanyahu told a high-level gathering of Israeli and American policy makers at the Saban Forum in occupied Al-Quds on November 15.

True to character, Netanyahu resorted to red-herring tactics, alluding to the Iranian "threat" and saying that economic development would expedite peace with Palestinians.

The Israeli premier, who a few months ago indicated in a speech in Tel Aviv that any prospective Palestinian entity would have to be effectively controlled by Israel, did not spell out what steps and countermeasures he would take in response to a unilateral statehood declaration by the PA leadership.

However, Israeli commentators have pointed out that Israel could take "draconian measures" to foil the prospective Palestinian plan.

Israel could scuttle the PA financially by blocking money transfer, especially from donor countries.

Israel could assert its control of area "C" which encompasses nearly two thirds of the West Bank, enforce more Judaizing measures in Al-Quds, and assert its "divine and historical right to all of the land of Israel" — Mandate Palestine which extends from the Mediterranean to the River Jordan.

Israel could also embark on a massive campaign of home demolitions and land seizure in the West Bank and East Al-Quds, as well as disarming Palestinian security forces trained and funded by the United States.

Eventually, Israel might also re-impose its direct military occupation of all towns and population centers run by the PA, and reinstitute the erstwhile direct military regime known as "the civil administration".

Palestinian leaders seem to be well aware of potential Israeli reactions.

Muhammed Dahlan, a member of the Fateh’s executive committee, said that the PA leadership had a "bank of ideas" as to how to outmaneuver Israelis.

In any case, it is highly unlikely that even a successful statehood declaration, enjoyed by strong international backing, would allow the Palestinians to retrieve their legitimate rights from Israel’s extremely parsimonious hands.

One Palestinian official in Ramallah, who opted for anonymity, termed the contemplated statehood declaration as merely "the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end".

The cardinal issues of Al-Quds, refugees, and settlements, along with other important issues such as the control over water resources, would require a long and painful struggle that might last for decades.

"Hence, the statehood declaration would only be a station on the long road to freedom and independence. It will not be a consummation of anything," The source added.

Hamas, too, is giving the cold shoulder.

Salah Al-Bardawell, a Hamas official based in the Gaza Strip, described the contemplated statehood declaration as "a desperate reaction by Fateh to the faltering peace process".

"This move is not a meaningful declaration. It simply aims at escaping the benefits of resistance against the occupation," he said.

"Instead of threatening to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state to be established in the air, we should work on liberating the occupied territories and end the current internal [Palestinian] division," He added.

Declaring a state "in the air on 20 per cent of the Palestinian land, which would be rejected by the world, is not the solution," he argued.

"Rather, Palestinians should focus on liberating their country first and then establish statehood."